Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts
The paper proposes RLVR, counterfactual events, and multi-source data; Polymarket training reduced R1-14B Brier score from 0.214 to 0.197.
Sang-Woo Lee, Sohee Yang, Donghyun Kwak et al.