Causal LLM Routing: End-to-End Regret Minimization from Observational Data

TL;DR

Proposed causal LLM routing framework minimizes decision regret from observational data, outperforming existing baselines.

cs.AI 🔴 Advanced 2025-05-22 26 views
Asterios Tsiourvas Wei Sun Georgia Perakis
causal inference LLM routing regret minimization observational data heterogeneous cost

Key Findings

Methodology

This study introduces a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret from observational data. It introduces two theoretically grounded surrogate objectives: a classification-based upper bound and a softmax-weighted regret approximation. The framework also handles heterogeneous cost preferences via an interval-conditioned architecture.

Key Results

  • Experiments show the method achieves state-of-the-art performance on BERT and LLaMA embeddings, surpassing existing baselines.
  • The method excels in RouterBench and SPROUT benchmarks, particularly in handling heterogeneous cost preferences.
  • Successfully recovers optimal policy at convergence using softmax-weighted regret approximation.

Significance

This research is significant for academia and industry as it addresses the reliance on full-feedback data in traditional methods, offering a more scalable and cost-effective solution, especially in handling heterogeneous cost preferences.

Technical Contribution

Technical contributions include introducing a new causal inference framework capable of learning routing policies from observational data and achieving optimal policy recovery through softmax-weighted regret approximation.

Novelty

This is the first work to learn LLM routing from observational data and introduce an integrated learning framework that directly minimizes decision-making regret, differing from traditional decoupled methods.

Limitations

  • The method relies on the quality of observational data and may perform poorly in sparse or biased data scenarios.
  • Extreme cost preference cases may require additional model adjustments.

Future Work

Future work could explore validating the framework's effectiveness on more diverse datasets and further reducing computational costs.

AI Executive Summary

In large-scale language model (LLM) applications, selecting the appropriate model to balance accuracy and cost is crucial. Traditional methods often rely on full-feedback data, which is impractical. This paper proposes a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret from observational data. The method introduces a classification-based upper bound and a softmax-weighted regret approximation, capable of recovering optimal policy at convergence. Experimental results show that the method achieves state-of-the-art performance on BERT and LLaMA embeddings, particularly excelling in handling heterogeneous cost preferences. However, the method's reliance on observational data quality is a limitation, and future work could explore validating the framework's effectiveness on more diverse datasets.

Deep Analysis

Background

In recent years, the development of large-scale language models (LLMs) has made model selection increasingly important. Traditional methods often rely on full-feedback data, which is impractical in practice.

Core Problem

The core problem is how to learn optimal routing policies from observational data to balance model accuracy and cost.

Innovation

The core innovation of this paper is the introduction of a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret and handling heterogeneous cost preferences.

Methodology

  • �� Propose a causal end-to-end framework
  • �� Introduce a classification-based upper bound
  • �� Use softmax-weighted regret approximation
  • �� Handle heterogeneous cost preferences with interval-conditioned architecture

Experiments

Experiments are conducted on RouterBench and SPROUT benchmarks, using BERT and LLaMA embeddings for evaluation.

Results

Results show that the method outperforms existing baselines across various benchmarks, particularly excelling in handling heterogeneous cost preferences.

Applications

The method can be applied in various LLM applications requiring a balance between accuracy and cost, such as automated question-answering systems and text generation.

Limitations & Outlook

The method relies on the quality of observational data and may perform poorly in sparse or biased data scenarios.

Plain Language Accessible to non-experts

Imagine you're in a large kitchen with many chefs, each specializing in different dishes. You need to choose the right chef based on the guest's preferences and budget. Our framework acts like a smart assistant that quickly recommends the best chef based on past experiences, without needing to try every chef each time.

ELI14 Explained like you're 14

Imagine you're playing a strategy game with many characters to choose from, each with different skills and costs. You need to pick the right character based on the difficulty of the task and your gold amount. Our research is like a game assistant that helps you quickly choose the best character, so you can win the game faster!

Glossary

Causal Inference

A method to infer causal relationships from observational data.

Used to estimate unobserved model outputs.

Regret Minimization

A method to minimize the gap between decision and optimal decision.

Used to optimize routing policies.

Observational Data

Data that records only the outcome of the model actually deployed.

Used for learning routing policies.

Softmax

A function that converts outputs into a probability distribution.

Used for regret approximation.

Heterogeneous Cost

Different users have different cost preferences.

Handled via interval-conditioned architecture.

Open Questions Unanswered questions from this research

  • 1 How to effectively learn routing policies in sparse or biased data scenarios.
  • 2 How to further reduce computational costs to improve the method's practicality.

Applications

Immediate Applications

Automated Question-Answering Systems

By selecting the appropriate LLM model, improve the accuracy and response speed of question-answering systems.

Long-term Vision

Intelligent Text Generation

In text generation tasks, dynamically select models to optimize generation quality and cost.

Abstract

LLM routing aims to select the most appropriate model for each query, balancing competing performance metrics such as accuracy and cost across a pool of language models. Prior approaches typically adopt a decoupled strategy, where the metrics are first predicted and the model is then selected based on these estimates. This setup is prone to compounding errors and often relies on full-feedback data, where each query is evaluated by all candidate models, which is costly to obtain and maintain in practice. In contrast, we learn from observational data, which records only the outcome of the model actually deployed. We propose a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret from observational data. To enable efficient optimization, we introduce two theoretically grounded surrogate objectives: a classification-based upper bound, and a softmax-weighted regret approximation shown to recover the optimal policy at convergence. We further extend our framework to handle heterogeneous cost preferences via an interval-conditioned architecture. Experiments on public benchmarks show that our method outperforms existing baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance across different embedding models.

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